By: Alex Rossitch
Welcome to the 3rd edition of “On the Move”. Our mission is simple, to track the data and trends around 15+ unit market rate multifamily transactions in the state of NC each month. We will be watching new deals listed, what sold, and what capital markets conditions exist so you are always up to date on the state of the market, and equipped to make the best decisions.
Late Cycle Bottoming → Early Recovery (with macro risk)
36 transactions totaling $790,982,800 in Q1 2026. Down 5.3% in deal count and 12.4% in volume year over year.
March closed just 8 deals for $119,260,800, continuing a steady decline from February’s 11 deals and $191,360,000. Deal count fell 27.3% and volume fell 37.7% month over month.
Average deal size fell from $28,256,588 in January to $17,396,364 in February to $14,907,600 in March.
Average unit count per deal fell 41.4% from January to March 2026 (140 to 82)
1980–1999 vintage accounted for 38.9% of Q1 closings, up from 23.7% in Q1 2025. 1979 and older dropped from 47.4% to 30.6%.
2011 or newer product represented just 27.8% of deals but commanded 64.3% of total volume.
Average Vintage (Q1 2026) — 1990 | (Q1 2025) — 1986
January’s $480M in volume annualized to $5.8B, on pace with 2025’s $5.3B full year. The Q1 annualized pace of $3.2B suggests 2026 volume will come in well below 2025 unless activity picks up meaningfully in Q2.
Against the full year 2025 average of $160K/unit, Q1 2026 came in at $149K/unit which was a 6.5% decline in value. Broken out by vintage: 1979 and older dropped 12.0% ($108K to $95K), 1980–1999 dipped 2.4% ($123K to $120K), and 2000–2010 slid 2.8% ($154K to $150K). The one bright spot: 2011+ product rose 5.3% to $250K/unit, the only vintage range trading above its 2025 average. (For the Q1 2025 vs. Q1 2026 pricing breakdown, see “The Data” section below.)
MBA forecasts multifamily originations to reach ~$399B in 2026, up from ~$330B in 2025. Lending activity has increased for six straight quarters. Capital is available for deals priced to today’s cost of capital.
Despite the headlines, capital markets have quietly improved over the past few weeks, and arguably more importantly, the market is not currently pricing in the worst case oil supply shock. On the credit front, CCC spreads moved from just over 1,000 bps in late March to ~930 as of this writing, and Treasury yields have drifted slightly lower from the March 27th highs.
At the same time, “Dr. Copper”, which has historically led economic slowdowns, is holding firm and remains up year over year. That suggests the underlying economy is more resilient than headlines imply, but time will tell if that holds.
On the ground, fundamentals remain tight. Operating costs continue to pressure returns, and higher supply markets continue to feel rent and concession pressure. Supply, however, is rolling over in a meaningful way. On a national level, completions are expected to fall from ~480,000 units in 2023 to ~260,000 by 2026, with starts down more than 30% year over year.
With roughly $10 trillion in Treasury debt, ~$3 trillion in corporate debt, and CRE maturities estimated as high as $1.8 trillion in 2026, there is real incentive to keep capital markets functioning, but policy alone can’t correct a cracking system.
Last Month’s Call: Last month I said 2026 volume was unlikely to match 2025 without a meaningful pickup in activity. Through the end of Q1, that call is holding.
This Month’s Call: We are past the bottom in pricing, but I don’t expect meaningful upward movement until early Q2 2027.
Risk to This View: An obvious risk to this view is that oil spikes, inflation reaccelerates and works deeper into the economy, rates push higher, and activity shifts back toward forced and distressed sellers.
Operating fundamentals matter more than ever, and timing decisions should be made with capital markets, not just property performance, in mind. The deals getting done, and more importantly, finding a competitive environment in the market, are the ones priced to today’s cost of capital.
Writing this I am reminded of an old Keynes quote, “It’s better to be roughly right than precisely wrong”. In today’s environment you have to focus on what you can control, and the uncertainty around the geopolitical climate poses a high level of near term risk. It’s easy to tell ourselves the market will be better in 6 months, but the reality is that as stewards of capital and assets, our job is to limit risk, and in this case hedge against uncertainty.
So in short, if your business plan hinges on an exit in the next 6-12 months, via either refinance or sale, I would recommend starting that process today.
Closings
Total Deals Sold — 36 YoY Variance (Q1 2026 vs. Q1 2025) — -5.3% (38 deals in Q1 2025) MoM Trend — 17 (Jan) → 11 (Feb) → 8 (Mar)
Volume
Total Volume — $790,982,800 YoY Variance — -12.4% ($902,886,734 in Q1 2025) MoM Trend — $480,362,000 (Jan) → $191,360,000 (Feb) → $119,260,800 (Mar)
Deal Size & Unit Count
Average Deal Size — $21,971,744 YoY Variance — -7.5% ($23,760,177 in Q1 2025) MoM Trend — $28,256,588 (Jan) → $17,396,364 (Feb) → $14,907,600 (Mar)
Average Unit Count — 115.4 units YoY Variance — +0.9% (114.3 units in Q1 2025) MoM Trend — 139.9 (Jan) → 101.4 (Feb) → 82.5 (Mar)
Average Vintage — 1990 Q1 2025 — 1986
Average Price Per Unit
Average PPU — $149,388 YoY Variance — +0.9% ($148,105 in Q1 2025) MoM Trend — $161,595 (Jan) → $140,580 (Feb) → $135,559 (Mar)
Average Price Per Unit by Vintage — Q1 2025 vs Q1 2026
1979 and older — $86,751 → $94,992 (+9.5% YoY)
1980–1999 — $133,044 → $120,019 (-9.8% YoY)
2000–2010 — $151,227 → $150,000 (-0.8% YoY)
2011 or newer — $301,925 → $250,279 (-17.1% YoY)
FY 2025 vs Q1 2026 by Vintage
Note: Q1 2025 Pre-1979 pricing ran well below the full-year average, which is why the Q1 2025-vs-Q1 2026 comparison shows gains while the FY 2025-vs-Q1 comparison shows declines. The FY comparison is the cleaner directional read.
Overall: FY 2025 $160K/unit (186 deals) → Q1 2026 $149K/unit (36 deals) | -6.5% 1979 & Older: $108K → $95K | -12.0% (48 vs 11 deals) 1980–1999: $123K → $120K | -2.4% (54 vs 14 deals) 2000–2010: $154K → $150K | -2.8% (25 vs 1 deal) 2011 or Newer: $238K → $250K | +5.3% (59 vs 10 deals)
Breakdown of Deals Sold by Vintage
1979 and older — 30.6% (11 of 36) vs. 47.4% (18 of 38) in Q1 2025
1980–1999 — 38.9% (14 of 36) vs. 23.7% (9 of 38) in Q1 2025
2000–2010 — 2.8% (1 of 36) vs. 7.9% (3 of 38) in Q1 2025
2011 or newer — 27.8% (10 of 36) vs. 21.1% (8 of 38) in Q1 2025
Breakdown of Deals Sold by Unit Count
Sub-100 units — 58.3% (21 of 36) vs. 57.9% (22 of 38) in Q1 2025
100+ units — 41.7% (15 of 36) vs. 42.1% (16 of 38) in Q1 2025
Transaction Volume by Vintage Band
1979 and older — $93.3M (11.8% of vol) vs. $96.1M (10.6%) in Q1 2025
1980–1999 — $186.0M (23.5% of vol) vs. $221.6M (24.5%) in Q1 2025
2000–2010 — $3.0M (0.4% of vol) vs. $46.9M (5.2%) in Q1 2025
2011 or newer — $508.7M (64.3% of vol) vs. $538.3M (59.6%) in Q1 2025
Average Deal Size by Vintage Band
1979 and older — $8.5M vs. $5.3M in Q1 2025
1980–1999 — $13.3M vs. $24.6M in Q1 2025
2000–2010 — $3.0M vs. $15.6M in Q1 2025
2011 or newer — $50.9M vs. $67.3M in Q1 2025
Average Unit Count by Vintage Band
1979 and older — 68 units vs. 51 in Q1 2025
1980–1999 — 88 units vs. 157 in Q1 2025
2000–2010 — 20 units vs. 100 in Q1 2025
2011 or newer — 216 units vs. 214 in Q1 2025
Monthly PPU Trend by Vintage Band
1979 and older — $106K (Jan) → $69K (Feb) → $97K (Mar) 1980–1999 — $126K (Jan) → $110K (Feb) → $118K (Mar) 2000–2010 — n/a (Jan) → $150K (Feb) → n/a (Mar) 2011 or newer — $263K (Jan) → $235K (Feb) → $241K (Mar)
Listings
New Listings — 29 total (10 priced, 19 unpriced) MoM Trend — 7 (Jan) → 13 (Feb) → 9 (Mar)
What’s Being Listed vs What’s Actually Trading
1979 and older — 44.8% of listings (13 of 29) vs. 30.6% of closings (11 of 36)
1980–1999 — 27.6% of listings (8 of 29) vs. 38.9% of closings (14 of 36)
2000–2010 — 3.4% of listings (1 of 29) vs. 2.8% of closings (1 of 36)
2011 or newer — 24.1% of listings (7 of 29) vs. 27.8% of closings (10 of 36)
U.S. Multifamily Completions
2023 (Cycle Peak) — ~480,000 units
2025 — 297,000 units
2026 (Forecast) — ~260,000 units
2028 Supply vs. 2025 — -31%
Multifamily Starts — down 32.2% YoY (Q3 2025)
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